With neither side able to accumulate big scores with any regularity, under 5.5 tries might be the value bet at 4/6.
Are Dragons two scores better than Zebre at home? That’s the question rugby betting punters need to ask themselves if they’re tempted to have a wager on the handicap in tonight’s Guinness PRO14 second-round clash at Rodney Parade.
History suggests they aren’t, the team line-ups suggest they are.
The Dragons have failed to score more than 16 points in the last three corresponding fixtures.
Only once, in the PRO14 last season, did they score more than the 27.5 points line set by the bookies for this match. That was the away game against Zebre; the home match ended in a 39-12 victory to the Parma side.
In round 1, the Dragons were very disappointing in the first half against Leinster in shipping 21 unanswered points before recovering well to lose 35-5.
That said, you’d like to think a squad containing exciting talent like Sam Davies, Ashton Hewitt and Jonah Holmes, together with the experience of Jamie Roberts and Ross Moriarty, will not under-perform so badly again.
Attack
Davies has alluded to the Dragons keeping the ball in play as much as possible in an effort to fatigue the Italians so an attack-minded approach should bring some tries. But with neither side able to accumulate big scores with any regularity, under 5.5 tries might be the value bet at 4/6.
If anything, Zebre were more disappointing in the first run out of the new season, losing 16-6 at home to 14-man Cardiff Blues.
The Blues looked vulnerable to an upset but Zebre barely fired a shot in attack and could only muster six points from two Carlo Canna penalties despite playing against 14 men for almost all of the second half.
Zebre have only ever won twice in Wales and are without a victory in any competition since they defeated Italian rivals Benetton in January.
How they line up:
Dragons: 15 Jordan Williams, 14 Jonah Holmes, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Ashton Hewitt, 10 Sam Davies, 9 Rhodri Williams (c), 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Harrison Keddie, 5 Matthew Screech, 4 Joe Davies, 3 Leon Brown, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Brok Harris
Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 Greg Bateman, 18 Aaron Jarvis, 19 Joe Maksymiw, 20 Ben Fry, 21 Tavis Knoyle, 22 Josh Lewis, 23 Adam Warren
Zebre: 15 Jacopo Trulla, 14 Junior Laloifi, 13 Giulio Bisegni (c), 12 Federico Mori, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Guglielmo Palazzani, 8 David Sisi, 7 Johan Meyer, 6 Maxime Mbandà, 5 Ian Nagle, 4 Leonard Krumov, 3 Eduardo Bello, 2 Marco Manfredi, 1 Daniele Rimpelli
Replacements: 16 Massimo Ceciliani, 17 Danilo Fischetti, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Cristian Stoian, 20 Mick Kearney, 21 Nicolò Casilio, 22 Antonio Rizzi, 23 Lorenzo Masselli
