- Leinster to score >1.5 tries (4/9, Paddy Power)
Munster v Leinster, Saturday, January 23, ko 7.35pm, Thomond Park
Is this the moment the balance of power tips back towards Munster after a decade of Leinster dominance? It is a question that increasingly gets asked as soon as Munster and Ulster, and to a lesser extent Connacht, start to show they are getting their acts together.
Under the impressive coaching team of a Johann van Graan, Stephen Larkham and Graham Rowntree, Munster have fashioned a very good side, one that currently stands head and shoulders above everyone else in Conference A.
But to make a real statement of intent they need to get the better of Leinster in a match where both sides are at full strength and have plenty to play for.
While home advantage in the knockout stages looks assured for Munster given their 11-point lead, their players will be fully motivated for what is the biggest PRO14 derby to date. And like their Leinster cohorts, many of their players will be looking to catch the eye of Andy Farrell with his Six Nations squad selection looming.
The Dubliners have an added incentive, though, as they need to win to put a further foot on the throat of Conference B rivals Ulster, who they beat last time out. Ulster are still five points ahead of Leinster at the top but have played two games more and a win at Thomond Park would put Leinster firmly in the box seat.
For us, Leinster still have at least one more season of PRO14 dominance in them before Stuart Lancaster accepts one of the many jobs he is constantly linked with – Harlequins being the latest – and leaves Leo Cullen to rebuild with a new right-hand man alongside him.
We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again, Leinster do not let you down in big matches; their ever-growing trophy collection attests to their ability to deliver when it matters.
They also have the psychological edge over Munster. Leinster have won eight of the last nine meetings between the sides and with full-strength line-ups on show – Garry Ringrose is back in midfield for the visitors, for example – they have enough pedigree and credit in the bank to be backed to prevail again.
Our cast-iron pick, however, is for them to score more than one try in the game (4/9, Paddy Power).
They only managed one in ekeing out a 13-6 win in last season’s corresponding fixture but that was the only time they have failed to score more than once in their last five regular season visits.
They have managed 11 tries across that timeframe, so they’ve hardly been prolific, but it is hard to imagine this Leinster line-up not crossing the whitewash more than once, even against a well-drilled defence like Munster’s.
In what is likely to be a ferocious contest at the breakdown, one of the back-rowers will no doubt put in a standout shift so we’d be looking towards them for the man-of-the-match honours.
Caelen Doris, at No.8, is the player everyone is raving about right now and with his phenomenal work-rate and current form, he might be worth considering at 12/1.
Munster: Mike Haley; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Damian de Allende, Shane Daly; JJ Hanrahan, Conor Murray; James Cronin, Rhys Marshall, John Ryan; Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne; Gavin Coombes, Peter O’Mahony (C), CJ Stander.
Replacements: Niall Scannell, Dave Kilcoyne, Stephen Archer, Fineen Wycherley, Jack O’Donoghue, Craig Casey, Ben Healy, Rory Scannell.
Leinster: H Keenan; J Larmour, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, J O’Brien; J Sexton (C), L McGrath; C Healy, S Cronin, A Porter; S Fardy, J Ryan; R Ruddock, W Connors, C Doris.
Replacements: R Kelleher, E Byrne, T Clarkson, R Molony, J Conan, J Gibson-Park, R Byrne, J van der Flier.
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
