- <4.5 tries (8/11, Paddy Power)
- Highest scoring half: 2nd half (Evns, Paddy Power)
Recent meetings between Scarlets and Cardiff Blues suggest home advantage amounts to next to nothing, and with no crowd at Parc y Scarlets, that rings even truer.
In the last 10 encounters, the win/loss ratio is split 50:50 between the home and the away team and the Blues won 34-5 in west Wales only a couple of seasons ago so going there holds no fears for them.
However, we believe that the Scarlets, spurred on by the emotional energy boost they will get from having Ken Owens back in the fold after a long injury absence, will have enough about them to just about come out on top. Equally, it’ll be interesting to see what sort of impact Dai Young’s return as DoR will have on the Blues.
Scarlets will be looking to avenge the 29-20 defeat against the same opposition two weeks ago, and while that looks an entirely attainable goal with the team they have put out, it is doubtful that the rematch will get near the half-century points mark.
With a good handful of players looking to play their way into Wayne Pivac’s plans for the Six Nations opener against Ireland on Sunday week, the intensity of the match will be up several levels and there won’t be as many soft shoulders in defence as there were in the first encounter.
Typically, both these teams like to play without the ball – they only average around 15 minutes’ worth of possession apiece, and the Scarlets kick it more than anyone – so a fairly low-scoring game that only opens up in the last quarter, given the quality on both benches, could be on the cards. It is also worth bearing in mind that 57% of the 21 tries the Blues have conceded in the PRO14 this seasin have come in the final 20 minutes.
The total match points line has been lowered since this morning, from 40.5 points to 39.5 points, and that may still even be a tad too high when you consider Scarlets average 17 points and the Blues just 15 in the PRO14 this season. Both average less than two tries per game.
Another factor likely to prevent a try-fest is the disciplinary records of the respective teams. Each concedes on average 13 penalties a match, which all adds up to his being a stop-start affair.
Verdict: Scarlets to get revenge and the win they need to leapfrog Connacht into second place in the Conference B table.
Key team news
Owens will be one of the players looking to catch the national selectors’ eye as he returns to action for the first time in three months after a shoulder problem.
Fit-again team-mate, lock Jake Ball, is another out to impress, while on the Blues bench Josh Navidi will be itching to remind people of what he can do. Navidi is likely to come on at openside for James Botham, who was unlucky to miss out on a place in Wales’ Six Nations squad.
Scarlets are missing the suspended Liam Williams but, in Johnny McNicholl, they have another counter-attacking threat from full-back. His opposite number, Matthew Morgan, will make his 100th Cardiff Blues appearance in an unchanged backline.
Meanwhile, back-rower Josh Turnbull will make his 200th league appearance having played for both Cardiff Blues and Scarlets.
Scarlets: Leigh Halfpenny; Johnny McNicholl, Jonathan Davies (capt), Johnny Williams, Steff Evans; Dan Jones, Gareth Davies; Wyn Jones, Ryan Elias, Javan Sebastian, Jake Ball, Sam Lousi, Blade Thomson, Ed Kennedy, Sione Kalamafoni.
Replacements: Ken Owens, Phil Price, Werner Kruger, Tevita Ratuva, Uzair Cassiem, Kieran Hardy, Angus O’Brien, Steff Hughes.
Cardiff Blues: Matthew Morgan; Josh Adams, Rey Lee-Lo, Willis Halaholo, Hallam Amos; Jarrod Evans, Tomos Williams; Corey Domachowski, Liam Belcher, Dmitri Arhip, Seb Davies, Cory Hill (capt), Josh Turnbull, James Botham, Alun Lawrence.
Replacements: Kristian Dacey, Rhys Carré, Dillon Lewis, Rory Thornton, Josh Navidi, Lloyd Williams, Ben Thomas, Aled Summerhill.
Referee: Adam Jones (WRU)
