- Quins -11 v Bath (10/11); Max Clark anytime tryscorer 9/2
- Wasps +6 v Northampton (10/11, various); Wasps-Wasps HT/FT (16/5), Paddy Power)
- Worcester v Leicester >53.5 pts (10/11, various)
Harlequins v Bath
Quins have suffered five defeats in their last 10 games but closer inspection of those losses reveals all were – bar the 50-point second-string blow-out against Ulster – by six points or fewer.
The defeats to Newcastle, Exeter, Bristol and Leicester all came against extremely physical sides, and while Bath like to play the power game, they’re still struggling to consistently impose themselves on the opposition.
Whilst Bath continue to chop and change in an attempt to find the elusive winning combination, Quins have the benefit of a settled team with the same starting XV that came up just short away to Tigers. The only changes to the matchday 23 come on the bench with Archie White and Aaron Morris getting a chance to put their hands up for the play-offs.
Quins aren’t guaranteed a top-four spot just yet but with an 11-point gap between themselves and Northampton in fifth, a win at the Twickenham Stoop would do it.
Bath go into the match just outside of the top eight and face the prospect of missing out on Heineken Champions Cup rugby, which would have been unthinkable at the start of the season.
Bath really shouldn’t be in the position they are in with the squad they have, but if anything they are going backwards and it is hard to see them snapping a four-game losing run here.
That said, there should be tries at either end and Max Clark has been playing out of skin of late for Bath and is a decent-looking 9/2 to get on the scoresheet (Paddy Power).
Harlequins: 15. Tyrone Green, 14. Nathan Earle, 13. Luke Northmore, 12. James Lang, 11. Joe Marchant, 10. Marcus Smith, 9. Danny Care; 1. Joe Marler, 2. Scott Baldwin, 3. Wilco Louw, 4. Matt Symons, 5. Stephan Lewies (C), 6. Tom Lawday, 7. Jack Kenningham, 8. Alex Dombrandt
Replacements: 16. Joe Gray, 17. Santiago Garcia Botta, 18. Will Collier, 19. Dino Lamb, 20. Archie White, 21. Martin Landajo, 22. Ben Tapuai, 23. Aaron Morris
Bath: 15. Tom de Glanville, 14. Joe Cokanasiga, 13. Max Clark, 12. Max Ojomoh, 11. Will Muir, 10. Rhys Priestland, 9. Ben Spencer; 1. Jamie Bhatti, 2. Jacques du Toit, 3. Will Stuart, 4. Josh McNally, 5. Charlie Ewels ©, 6. Miles Reid, 7. Sam Underhill, 8. Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16. Tom Doughty, 17. Juan Schoeman 18. Henry Thomas, 19. Will Spencer, 20. Josh Bayliss, 21. Will Chudley, 22. Orlando Bailey, 23. Jonathan Joseph
Worcester Warriors v Leicester Tigers
With Heineken Champions Cup rugby for next season still not guaranteed and no relegation this season, sixth-place Leicester have the much bigger incentive to do well than the league’s cellar dwellers.
Warriors can hurt teams, there’s no doubt that, but winning is alien to them and Tigers are not the sort of team to rest on their laurels and go at their opponents with anything less than 100 per cent.
Worcester are without a win in any competition since they squeaked home against London Irish back in November, but they have never failed to get into double figures in that time.
Tigers have conceded an average of three tries per game over the last block of six matches and Worcester have managed to score an average of 2.66 tries in that same timeframe so it points to the scoreboard ticking over nicely.
Steve Borthwick will be looking to see a response from his side after the disappointment of losing the European Challenge Cup final to Montpellier and we expect them to bounce back with a win in a game where defence could be optional.
Over 53.5 points (5/6) is our recommended bet.
Worcester Warriors: 15 Jamie Shillcock, 14 Perry Humphreys, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Harri Doel, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Matt Kvesic, 7 Sam Lewis, 6 Ted Hill (c), 5 Justin Clegg, 4 Andrew Kitchener, 3 Jay Tyack, 2 Niall Annett, 1 Marc Thomas
Replacements: 16 Isaac Miller, 17 Callum Black, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Joe Batley, 20 Kyle Hatherell, 21 Gareth Simpson, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Noah Heward
Leicester: 15 Zack Henry, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Matt Scott, 12 Dan Kelly, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Johnny McPhillips, 9 Ben Youngs (c), 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Hanro Liebenberg, 5 Cameron Henderson, 4 Harry Wells, 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Charlie Clare, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 James Whitcombe, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Tomás Lavanini, 20 George Martin, 21 Jack Van Poortvliet, 22 Kini Murimurivalu, 23 Harry Potter.
Northampton Saints v Wasps
It is a day of celebration for Northampton with captain Alex Waller becoming only the 24th player in the club’s history to reach a triple century of appearances, whilst Api Ratuniyarawa makes his 100th for the Saints.
Those two fine servants of the club deserve to mark the occasion with a win but we feel this is a fixture Wasps can come out on top in. Both sides can be sublime one match and disappointing the next, but the way Saints play really should suit the visitors.
Jacob Umaga’s confidence is sky-high right now and the future England prospect is more than capable of finding gaps in what has been a worryingly porous defence from a Saints point of view.
Wasps away form isn’t great – they have only won twice in six outings in all competitions since putting 50 points on Bath at The Rec in December – but not many teams do well at Leicester, Exeter, Bristol and Quins, and as we all know, the Quins defeat really should have been a win.
Saints’ season is slipping away with consecutive defeats all but signalling an end to their play-off hopes, while Wasps will be desperate for the points to cement their place in the top eight. They have more to play for and the ability to score enough points to support on the handicap at +6.
Wasps/Wasps is 16/5 in the half-time/full-time betting market.
Northampton Saints: 15 Tommy Freeman, 14 Ollie Sleightholme, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Tom James; 1 Alex Waller (co-capt), 2 Sam Matavesi, 3 Paul Hill, 4 Dave Ribbans, 5 Api Ratuniyarawa, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Lewis Ludlam (co-capt), 8 Tom Wood
Replacements: 16 Mikey Haywood, 17 Emmanuel Iyogun, 18 Ehren Painter, 19 Alex Moon, 20 Alex Coles, 21 Connor Tupai, 22 Piers Francis, 23 Rory Hutchinson
Wasps: 15 Charlie Atkinson, 14 Zach Kibirige, 13 Paolo Odogwu, 12 Michael Le Bourgeois, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Dan Robson; 1 Tom West, 2 Gabriel Oghre, 3 Biyi Alo, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 James Gaskell, 6 Brad Shields (C), 7 Thomas Young, 8 Tom Willis
Replacements: 16 Tom Cruse, 17 Simon McIntyre, 18 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 19 Tim Cardall, 20 Sione Vailanu, 21 Ben Vellacott, 22 Jimmy Gopperth, 23 Rob Miller
