The Rugby Championship Round 1 fixtures – Sat August 14
New Zealand v Australia, Eden Park, Auckland, kick-off 8:05am (BST)
South Africa v Argentina, Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, kick-off 16:05pm (BST)
Los Pumas offer new test to Boks
Recommended bet: 1pt Argentina +4 half-time h’cap (Evns, Paddy Power)
South Africa are a team that does what they want – their decision not to partake in last year’s truncated Rugby Championship is proof of that.
So don’t expect the world champion Lion-tamers to listen to the criticism that they are ‘boring’ and suddenly change tact and play fast and loose. And why should they?
History has shown that teams who try to change their game plan overnight rarely prosper. England’s failed bid to change from a 10-man outfit to one that threw the ball around arguably cost them the 1991 World Cup final.
The Springbok blueprint may not win over many neutrals but the old adage of ‘if it ain’t broke why fix it?’ has never been more apt.
It is up to the opposition to find a way to break down a watertight defence that has only conceded six tries in its last 11 matches, and the Lions should be criticised for failing to find a way to do that every bit as much as the Springboks were for the manner of their 2-1 series victory.
Los Pumas are a good example of a side that has changed their approach, from a forward-orientated side to a more rounded one but that process took them a couple of years and is still a work in process to some extent.
Validation for the change came on the opening day of last year’s Tri-Nations competition when they stunned the All Blacks 25-15. Los Pumas hadn’t played for a year at that point but travelled to the other side of the world and did a number on their hosts.
The All Blacks produced an emphatic response a few weeks later in winning 38-0 but two draws against Australia and back-to-back victories in Wales have shown they have the ability to trouble the Springboks more than Earren Gatland’s toothless Lions did.
Argentina’s 33-11 win over an inexperienced Wales last month was their first in Cardiff for nine years and Mario Ledesma goes into Saturday’s much bigger test in Port Elizabeth with a settled side.
The only change to the starting XV from that Cardiff triumph comes at scrum-half where Felipe Ezcurra takes on the scrum-half duties.
Ledesma’s counterpart, Jacques Nienaber, has opted for a fresh line-up after the rigours of the last three weeks, with 12 changes to the team that sealed the Lions series win.
Argentina won’t have to worry about the twin threats of Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi on the wing as a result, while the jury is still out on fly-half Elton Jantjies, who replaces Handre Pollard at 10.
Jasper Wiese has the potential to have a big game in him but the Argentineans will look to get under the skin of the easily-riled Leicester No.8 and win some cheap penalties for Nicolas Sanchez to kick.
Expecting Argentina to beat the Springboks is a big ask – especially at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, where the world champions have never been beaten in six previous appearances – but no bigger than the challenge that confronted them back in November when they took down the All Blacks.
In what is likely to be a relatively low-scoring affair, giving Los Pumas an eight-point start on the handicap may be underestimating them.
We expect Los Pumas to come flying out of the blocks, as the rejigged Springboks side takes time to settle and adjust to the new demands placed in front of them, and head into half-time in good shape.
Teams
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Sbu Nkosi, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Aphelele Fassi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Cobus Reinach, 1 Ox Nche, 2 Joseph Dweba, 3 Wilco Louw, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Lood de Jager, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 7 Kwagga Smith, 8 Jasper Wiese
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marvin Orie, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Dan du Preez, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Morne Steyn.
Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Santiago Chocobares, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Matias Moroni, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Felipe Ezcurra, 8, Rodrigo Bruni, 7 Facundo Isa, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Marcos Kremer, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro
Replacements: 16 Facundo Bosch, 17 Carlos Muzzio, 18 Santiago Medrano, 19 Tomas Lavanini, 20 Matias Alemanno, 21 Gonzalo Bertranou, 22 Domingo Miotti, 23 Sebastian Cancelliere
All Blacks response
Recommended bet: 1pt: New Zealand -10 half-time ha’cap (10/11, Paddy Power)
The All Blacks let us down last week in failing to pass 36.5 points, racing to 33 in 64 minutes and then nothing after in the face of an Australian comeback.
New Zealand are likely to find themselves in a similarly dominant position in the Bledisloe Cup rematch at Eden Park and, this time, it’s hard to imagine them not putting their foot on the throat of the Wallabies and eclisping the 33-25 result from last week.
To lose by only eight points flattered Australia. Had it not been for three late tries, they would have been well and truly beaten – by a side that was some way short of its best and unlikely to concede as many as 16 penalties again.
Overcoming a handicap of -21 may be asking too much, though, especially as the Wallabies can count upon the strike running of Mario Koroibete again, following his one-match suspension. So we’re inclined to look at the half-time margin, instead.
Australia have been slow starters of late and have only led at half-time in one of their last five matches. With New Zealand expected to be more fluid in attack from the off, we believe they can cover the half-time handicap of -10.
Teams
New Zealand: 15 Damien McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 David Havili, 11 Sevu Reece, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 1 George Bower, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Nepo Laulala, 4 Brodie Retallick, 5 Sam Whitelock (c), 6 Akira Ioane, 7 Dalton Papalii, 8 Ardie Savea
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Jordie Barrett.
Australia: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Matt To’omua, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Tate McDermott, 1 James Slipper, 2 Brandon Paenga Amosa, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 4 Darcy Swain, 5 Matt Philip, 6 Lachie Swinton, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 8 Rob Valetini
Replacements: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Lukhan Salakaia Loto, 20 Harry Wilson, 21 Nic White, 22 Len Ikitau, 23 Reece Hodge
