Round 2 top tips:
- France by 6-10 points (5/1, William Hill)
- France v Ireland Under 4.5 tries (4/6, various)
- France v Ireland Player of the Match – Gregory Alldritt (16/1, Boyle Sports)
- Scotland to beat Wales (10/13, SBK)
- Scotland over 2.5 tries (8/11, Paddy Power)
- Italy v England anytime try-scorer, Max Malins (4/6, Betway)
One man doesn’t make a team but Johhny Sexton is key to making Ireland tick. So when the news came through that the evergreen fly-half and captain was out with a hamstring injury, it inevitably led to the odds on an away win being lengthened.
Joey Carbery comes in as Sexton’s replacement and is no Test rookie having won 28 caps, but this is his first-ever Six Nations start. Being thrust into pressure games doesn’t seem to faze the Munster player as he made his debut off the bench when Ireland famously beat the All Blacks 40-29 in Chicago in 2016.
But with a new playmaker and a new captain in James Ryan, it is easy to see why an Irish win isn’t fancied quite as much as it was two days ago.
In what has traditionally been a game decided by small margins (Unibet are offering 7/10 on their being less than 43 points), you need every advantage you can get, and the loss of such a talisman cannot be understated.
Upfront the teams should be a match for each other and, defensively, there isn’t much between the teams. If Ireland are to win, they must hope that France repeat their ill-disciplined showing against Italy last week (they gave away 14 penalties) and Carbery kicks his goals.
Work-rate will be massive in a game that promises to be huge in physicality and no one works harder than France No.8 Gregory Alldritt, who was destined for his third Player of the Match Six Nations award (he got two in 2020, including one against Ireland) until Gabin Villiere scored a hat-trick. Alldritt is a best-priced 16/1 to receive the honour.
No beer nor cheer for Wales
Meanwhile, it promises to be a sobering experience for Wales, on and off the pitch. With the Principality Stadium bars only serving low-alcohol beer and shut completely in the second half, fans won’t be able to properly drown their sorrows after what we feel will be a rare away win for Scotland in Cardiff.
Travelling holds no fears for this Scotland team nowadays, and their 20-year winless record in Cardiff could soon be consigned to the annals of history, just like their previous barren runs in Paris and Twickenham, which came to an end last year.
Wales have solidified their team with the inclusion of the powerful Ross Moriarty from the start and the selection of a specialist centre in Owen Watkin, but they still don’t appear to have enough oomph about them, or the skill to get the ball out wide to the deadly Louis Rees-Zammit in space.
The line-ups and the choice of Nic Berry as referee suggest a fast and loose game and even though the stadium roof will be open to the slate grey skies that are forecast, you’d reckon on the Scots having enough about them to score over 23 points (4/5) and over two tries (8/11) *both Paddy Power.
Scotland and over 44.5 match points is 15/8 with the Irish bookmaker.
England to take it to the Max!
Onto Sunday … Were Italy that good and England that poor in round one for the away side to be handicapped to the tune of 25 points?
Earlier in the week, England were -22, which looked a steal and we still favour them to win and win well.
Apart from Marco Zanon in midfield and Monty Ioane out wide, Italy carry little carrying threat and struggle to score points.
The Azzurri might just about get into double figures, as they tend to do, but England to score 40 is certainly not implausible.
Italy were vulnerable on the edges against France last week, with four of Les Bleus’ five tries scored by wingers.
England were poor in their execution inside the opposition 22 in losing 20-17 to Scotland last week, coming away from their 18 raids inside the red zone empty-handed on far too many occasions. Against Italy, though, they should put this right and Max Malins (4/6 anytime try-scorer, Betway) will be disappointed if he doesn’t get on the scoresheet.
For longer odds punters, the aforementioned Zanon (7/1 anytime try-scorer, Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Boyle Sports) might trouble England’s lightweight-looking midfield on the crash-ball. Zanon carried 10 times against France – more than any of his team-mates – but the question is will Italy get enough ball in the right areas for him to strike.
