Saturday 27 February:
Wales v England, 4.45 pm, Principality Stadium
Four months ago in Llanelli, England beat Wales 24-13 without breaking out of third gear, with largely the same set of players that they’ll be relying on to do the business this Saturday.
And the overall head-to-head in recent times points to an away win as that is one of the nine meetings England have won in the last 12 fixtures; however, they have lost two of their last three meetings on Welsh soil and are now on the back foot.
While Wales are on the up after a difficult first season under Wayne Pivac, England have hit the crest of a slump in terms of performance if not results. But still, Eddie Jones persists with picking players out of form.
Red brick wall awaits sterile England
Dealing with England’s predictable attack will be meat and drink to a Wales defence that has made 477 tackles in wins over 14-man Ireland and Scotland. Unless England can find some sort of zip in attack the danger is they will be repelled time and time again by the red brick wall in front of them.
Wales may not have a full house cheering them on but extra motivation is never needed for matches whenever they’re playing the old enemy across the Severn.
And with the return of Josh Adams on one wing and Six Nations top try-scorer Louis Rees-Zammit on the other, Wales have two deadly finishers out wide capable of giving Elliot Daly another rough outing at full-back. Rees-Zammit’s personal duel with Gloucester team-mate, Jonny May, will be fascinating.
England have picked a team to play territory and based it around the set-piece, whereas Wales will want to keep the ball in play as much as possible, soak up what pressure comes their way and then hit England with the odd sucker punch. In some ways, it has the feel of the 2013 title decider that Wales won 30-3, although a repeat victory by that margin would be incredible.
Backing Wales at +6.5 points on the handicap, and to score more than 15.5 points in the process, looks a reasonable bet though.
No need to pour cold water on an early bath
Red cards are all the rage in rugby at the moment – there were five in five Gallagher Premiership matches last weekend – and Betway are offering 6/1 for one in this match.
You may recall Manu Tuilagi was sent off towards the end of last season’s meeting, a narrow 33-30 win for England, and there’s never any love lost between the teams so tempers could be frayed. Also, referee Pascal Gaüzère has been known to show a red card or two in his time.
Even if they don’t fall foul of the referee, England will be on red alert when it comes to keeping Rees-Zammit out of the game, which could allow more opportunities for Adams. Adams returns from his ban for a Covid breach and will be desperate to get on the scoresheet.
Recommended bets:
- Wales over 15.5 points
- Wales +6.5 points on the handicap
- Josh Adams anytime try-scorer (3/1 skybet)
Italy v Ireland, 2.15 pm at Stade Olimpico, Rome
Italy aren’t as bad as everyone makes out, fact. And they have scored more tries (three to two) than opponents Ireland, the only other winless team in the Championship.
So why are Ireland three to four-score favourites? History and the last Six Nations meeting between the teams is a big factor.
Ireland ran in seven tries in scoring 50 points against the Azzurri back in October but they have regressed if anything as an attacking force since then, despite what Mike Catt has been saying, and are averaging just 21 points per game.
During that run of seven games Ireland have failed to bag a single try-bonus point and with Italy showing they are capable of keeping the scoreboard ticking over, at least at the start and end of games, the margin in Ireland’s favour may not be as big as everyone thinks.
Recommended bets:
- Italy +25.5 on the h’cap (4/7 Betfred)
- Italy to win race to 10 points (9/1 skybet)
- Under 51.5 match points (10/11, Bet 365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power)
- Ireland to score less than 5.5 tries (4/7, Paddy Power)
