Let’s start with the undercard …
WALES v ITALY – Saturday 19 March 2022, Principality Stadium – KO 2.15pm
Wales’ boom or bust cycle of the last few years has continued with a title win followed by what looks like a fifth-place finish.
There’s no doubt in our minds that Wayne Pivac’s men will sign off on a winning note but for them to get to 40 points+ will need a big improvement in the fluency of their back play.
While covering 28 points may be a big ask, they should manage at least a half-a-dozen tries which gives some scope in the anytime try-scorer market.
Gareth Davies (3/2 Coral) has been reinstated at scrum-half and could be a good man to put your money on, as he’ll be out to prove a point and has a history of scoring against Italy with two tries in previous fixtures.
We also quite like Italy at odds of 5/2 (Boyle Sports) to be the first team to score. They’ve achieved that twice this Championship so have a 50/50 record and Wales’ ill-discipline could afford Paolo Garbisi an early shot at goal.
Wales: 15. Johnny McNicholl, 14. Louis Rees-Zammit, 13. Owen Watkin, 12. Uilisi Halaholo, 11. Josh Adams, 10. Dan Biggar (c), 9. Gareth Davies; 1. Gareth Thomas, 2. Dewi Lake, 3. Dillon Lewis, 4. Adam Beard, 5. Alun Wyn Jones, 6. Seb Davies, 7. Josh Navidi, 8. Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16. Bradley Roberts, 17. Wyn Jones, 18. Leon Brown, 19. Will Rowlands, 20. Ross Moriarty, 21. Kieran Hardy, 22. Callum Sheedy, 23. Nick Tompkins
Italy: 15. Ange Capuozzo, 14. Edoardo Padovani, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 12. Leonardo Marin, 11. Montanna Ioane, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 9. Callum Braley, 1. Danilo Fischetti, 2. Giacomo Nicotera, 3. Pietro Ceccarelli, 4. Marco Fuser, 5. Federico Ruzza, 6. Giovanni Pettinelli, 7. Michele Lamaro (c), 8. Toa Halafihi
Replacements: 16. Luca Bigi, 17. Ivan Nemer, 18. Giosuè Zilocchi, 19. David Sisi, 20. Niccolò Cannone, 21. Braam Steyn, 22. Alessandro Fusco, 23. Marco Zanon
IRELAND v SCOTLAND – Saturday 19 March 2022, Aviva Stadium – KO 4.45pm
Scotland often play like a team that’s been out ‘on the lash’ so it will be interesting to see what kind of performance they turn in today after a build-up dominated by the sozzled six’s curfew-breaking drink
Even before the disruption, which has seen Finn Russell relegated to the bench, Scotland were up against it having not won in Dublin for 12 years.
Ireland don’t get beat at home, and that’s against better teams than the inconsistent Scots, who have once again flattered to deceive after the opening round euphoria caused by the Calcutta Cup win.
Ireland should cover the 17-point handicap in a game that has all the hallmarks of being fast and loose, which leads us to take up the overs line in the total points market of 53.5 (4/5 Unibet).
With twice as many tries scored and around a quarter of those conceded by Scotland, the home side will have too much firepower for the visitors and will keep their title hopes alive for a couple of hours at least…
Ireland: 15. Hugo Keenan, 14. Mack Hansen, 13. Garry Ringrose, 12. Bundee Aki, 11. James Lowe, 10. Johnny Sexton, 9. Jamison Gibson Park; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Dan Sheehan, 3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. Tadhg Beirne, 5. Iain Henderson, 6. Caelan Doris, 7. Josh van der Flier 8. Jack Conan
Replacements: 16. Rob Herring, 17. Dave Kilcoyne, 18. Finlay Bealham, 19. Kieran Treadwell, 20. Peter O’Mahony, 21. Conor Murray, 22. Joey Carbery, 23. Robbie Henshaw
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Kyle Steyn, 10 Blair Kinghorn, 9 Ali Price; 1 Pierre Schoeman, 2 George Turner, 3 Zander Fagerson, 4 Jonny Gray, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 6 Rory Darge, 7 Hamish Watson, 8 Matt Fagerson
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Allan Dell, 18 WP Nel, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 Ben White, 22 Finn Russell, 23 Mark Bennett
FRANCE v ENGLAND – Saturday 19 March 2022, Stade de France – KO 8pm
So after 14 matches of the Six Nations 2022, we are set up for what will hopefully be a thrilling finale under the lights at the Stade de France in Paris.
It is all shaping up to be a night of celebration for France, who have a first Grand Slam and Six Nations title in their sights sicne 2010.
England couldnt stop them in 2004 and 2010, although they pushed them close, and it’s hard to see them coming out on top in ‘Le Crunch’ this time around.
France’s team virtually picks itself while with England, you can pick holes in everything Eddie Jones seems to do in terms of selection.
A back three of Furbank, Nowell and Steward aganst Jaminet, Villiere and Penaud … no competition.
Elsewhere, England don’t fare badly in the head-to-head ratings but the cohesion france play with rightly means they are favourites.
Les Bleus are well-disciplined, too, and should keep their heads when the pressure is on.
For us, it’s France to beat the -7 handicap and for Penaud to get on the scoresheet.
France: 15. Melvyn Jaminet, 14. Damian Penaud, 13. Gaël Fickou, 12. Jonathan Danty, 11. Gabin Villière, 10. Romain Ntamack. 9. Antoine Dupont (c), 1. Cyril Baille, 2. Julien Marchand, 3. Uini Atonio, 4. Cameron Woki, 5. Paul Willemse, 6. François Cros, 7. Anthony Jelonch, 8. Grégory Alldritt.
Replacements: 16. Peato Mauvaka, 17. Jean-Baptiste Gros, 18. Mohamed Haouas, 19. Romain Taofifenua, 20. Thibaud Flament, 21. Dylan Cretin, 22. Maxime Lucu, 23. Thomas Ramos
England: 15. George Furbank, 14. Freddie Steward, 13. Joe Marchant, 12. Henry Slade 11. Jack Nowell, 10. Marcus Smith, 9. Ben Youngs; 1. Ellis Genge, 2. Jamie George, 3. Will Stuart, 4. Maro Itoje, 5. Nick Isiekwe, 6. Courtney Lawes, 7. Sam Underhill, 8. Sam Simmonds
Replacements: 16. Nic Dolly, 17. Joe Marler, 18. Kyle Sinckler, 19. Ollie Chessum, 20. Alex Dombrandt, 21. Harry Randall, 22. George Ford, 23. Elliot Daly
