Recommended bets:
- 3pts Lions to score under 21.5 points at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 2pts under 3.5 match tries at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 0.5pt Ken Owens to score the last try at 25/1 (Betfair)
Even before Rassie Erasmus’ hour-long rant at the standard of officiating in the Springboks’ First Test 22-17 defeat to the Lions, the pressure was on this Saturday’s referee Ben O’Keeffe.
The Kiwi’s much-maligned decision to send off Wallaby Marika Koroibete with Australia’s match against France only five minute’s old was subsequently overturned, leading to question marks being raised over his officiating ability.
O’Keeffe has been on the international scene for the last five years and had stood in 26 Tests, including at the Rugby World Cup, so has superb credentials.
But his muddled thinking in Brisbane a few weeks ago made some people wonder if he was the right man to be in the middle for this pivotal Lions Test.
Koroibete’s red card was the second one O’Keeffe has dished out in his last five Tests, although Manu Tuilagi’s in the closing stages of an England Six Nations 2020 win against Wales was much more clear cut.
Whether Erasmus’ video post highlighting the perceived inadequacies of Nic Berry officiating was inspired by Warren Gatland publicly voicing his concerns about having South African Marius Jonker as TMO for the first Test, only he will know. But he will be hoping that it has a similar effect with regard to any 50:50 calls.
Jonker is only human and surely it would have been in his mind not to fuel the fire of accusations of home bias when reviewing the game’s big moments.
As such, the big 50:50 calls – like the failure to sin-bin Hamish Watson for a tip tackle that warranted a yellow card and the Willie le Roux ‘try’ – went against the home side.
By putting Berry’s ‘failings’ out there, Erasmus has turned up the heat on O’Keeffe who could react in one of two ways.
Worried that he will also be thrown under the bus if any controversial calls go against South Africa, the fear is the 32-year-old Aucklander might take it out on the Lions.
Alternatively, he may decide to show he is made of stern stuff and stand firm and over-compensate by giving the Lions the rub of the green.
One thing is for sure, he will earn his money.
Coming out fighting
Whether punters can profit as a result could depend just as much on how he handles the situation as the performances of the two teams.
Sir Ian McGeechan’s famous ‘Wounded Springbok’ speech on the epic 1997 tour applies just as much now as it did 12 years ago.
The Springboks will come out fighting for their lives and with a more solid-looking pack and a 6-2 split on the bench, and another week’s training under their belts, they should last the distance better than last week.
The key will be whether they can show a bit more to their game and prove they can bewitch the opposition with beautiful rugby as well as bullying them into submission.
Cheslin Kolbe was criminally under-used with the ball in hand in the First Test and will be itching to take on Duhan van der Merwe one-on-one, something that didn’t happen a week ago.
But one area where they wouldn’t change a thing is in defence. In 14 Tests since the start of 2019, they have conceded an average of just 12 points per game, with only six tries scored against them in the last 10.
With that in mind and the expectation that South Africa won’t be as fatigued, and will be better disciplined and give less penalties away as a result, we believe the Lions will struggle to go above 21 points in this match.
But if they are to cross the whitewash, as they did once in winning last week, Ken Owens could be in with a good shout to follow in the footsteps of fellow hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie.
Owens has scored two of his five international tries against the ‘Boks from just seven appearances compared to three from 77 against all other opposition.
As a last try-scorer bet, The Sherriff looks to be a decent price at 25/1 (Betfair) to fire the last shot of what should be another fight to the death.
