- 1pt: Match points over 41.5 pts (10/11, general)
- 1pt: 9/4 drop goal to be scored
- 2pts: Lions to win the second half at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 1pt: Lions to win the match at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 0.5pt: 1pt Bongi Mbonambi to score the first try at 18/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports)
The same terrible Cape Town Stadium pitch, the same limited Springbok tactics that won the World Cup and the same Lions head coach who’s never been noted for his free-flowing expansive style of rugby … Saturday’s match has all the ingredients to be another low-scoring affair, but maybe not as low as the previous two.
But what does history tells us about the final match of a three-match Lions Test series? Will the shackles be released as the two teams look to sign off on a high or will the importance of the win keep things tight?
In the six Lions series post-professionalism, the aggregate number of points in the match has exceeded 50 on four occasions, the exceptions being in 2009 and last time out in New Zealand in 2017.
The outcome of the series was riding on three of those four finales, against Australia in 2001 and 2013 and in New Zealand.
The 15-15 draw with the All Blacks was the lowest-scoring match of that three-Test series but the 29-23 and 41-16 wins against the Wallabies were the highest.
In this series, the opening two Tests have yielded just 39 points and 36 points, meaning that anyone backing Unders would have come up trumps.
Once again, the miserly line of 41.5 points has been set and, we think, that one way or another, Saturday’s match could go the other way.
Whilst it would be unrealistic to expect both teams to suddenly break from type and throw the ball around, the Lions do need to chance their arm. Playing the Springboks at their own game will not be enough.
If it comes off, you’d back the Lions to be the first team since New Zealand in the opening round of Rugby World Cup 2019 to score two tries past them. But should they fail to click with ball in hand, mistakes may open up hitherto unseen opportunities for the Springbok backs to shine.
With two ill-disciplined and fractious teams also likely to give away a flurry of penalties, this should push the total match points north of 41.5.
For the rest of our Third Test selections, take a look at our article on the Sporting Life website.
