- St Helens, 5/2 regular season winner
- Hull FC, 12/1 e/w regular season
We can be confident Super League 2021 will be another breathtaking spectacle. The recent rule changes, designed to further speed up an already blisteringly fast game, means we should see more sets, more carries, more tackles, more missed tackles, more metres carried and higher ball-in-play time than ever before.
The season begins like the last one ended with a temporary resumption of no scrums to comply with COVID-19 safety measures whilst the controversial ‘six again’ rule, which was also introduced during last season’s enforced break, is retained. Crucially, by eliminating a penalty for certain offences, it removes the accompanying stoppage (breather) resulting in an extra load placed on players and means fitness, speed and ball skills are even more premium assets.
There are several mouth-watering overseas signings added to the mix and, after a delayed start following a torrid lockdown, Super League is now to entertain us again.
Deciding factors
What is less certain is which team will show the level of consistency needed to finish on top come October.
There is so much to consider this time around and the season could well experience several phases of dominance by different teams in a fairly open-looking competition.
The campaign begins on Friday (March 26) with no crowds but gradually they will return, and their influence will, fingers crossed, be in full force before the season ends with the October 9 Grand Final.
Before then it will be a different story. We have seen in Rugby Union how Kingsholm loses its fortress-like status without the vociferous throngs packed into the stands and it is the same with rugby league. There will be no early advantage for Castleford, Catalans, Hull, Leeds, St Helens, Wigan and others whose intimidating home support can often be the equivalent of a 14th man.
The season also has the thrilling promise of a much-vaunted World Cup on home shores, burning bright as a beacon on the horizon, which follows hot on the heels of Super League. The stars of the game will be looking to play to their max to impress national coaches but with the World Cup beginning just two weeks after the Grand Final, many may finish the season ‘looking after themselves’.
If you are thinking about a season-long Super League bet, I suggest opting for the regular season winner rather than the Grand Final winner as there’s more chance of predicting which team is capable of finding the highest ratio of consistent winning form over the season than which side can win a series of play-offs after a long campaign, when players may be fatigued and carrying injuries. The Grand Final is too far away.
Also, factor in that the Super League table will again be determined by win percentage because of the possibility of postponements due to COVID-19.
This system is calculated by dividing the number of league points accrued – two for a win, one for a draw – by the number of matches played, before multiplying the figure by 50. This system led to Wigan Warriors topping the Super League table last season.
The Warriors are a best-priced 5/2 for a repeat with sponsors Betfred and they will be thereabouts again but they may take longer to get into full stride and 9/4 St Helens makes most appeal with Hull FC at 12/1 a sporting each-way Super League bet.
Club-by-Club regular season betting analysis
Castleford 12/1
The Tigers failed to click last season. The squad suffered too many key injuries and also struggled to adapt to the new rules, though reigning Man Steel Paul McShane remained consistent and was largely an exception.
Cas have added strength in depth with the likes of Niall Evalds, Suaia Matagi and Jordan Turner joining the club but a lack of real ball-playing talent may inhibit them.
Of bigger concern is long-standing coach Daryl Powell’s shock announcement that he is leaving the club at the end of the season (linked with Warrington) and whilst he will be determined to go out on a high, the news could have an unsettling effect on the players. He has been at the helm of his boyhood club since 2013 and his departure is bound to create uncertainty.
Predicted finish: 11th
Super League Bet: None
Catalans Dragons 16/1
The Dragons were superb on occasions last season but fell away having been beset with travel issues related to COVID-19.
On their day they were unstoppable, especially when Sam Tomkins was able to run the show, and we can also expect to see more of another star, James Maloney, this season. Dragons boss Steve McNamara has created a side that play for each other and who hate to lose.
We saw how Tom Davies, with 12 tries last season, is a clinical finisher and at 20-1 looks to be a value each-way bet in the season’s Top Try-scorer betting.
It is a settled and developing team that may not be blessed with a host of big-name signings, but it does contain a lot of talent and a strong club ethos. The departure of Israel Folau eliminates a headline-grabbing distraction and whilst Remi Casty, who has headed off to Toulouse, may be missed, there are a number of exciting young French players breaking through plus Dean Whare, Mike McMeeken and Gil Dudson look to be quality additions to the squad.
11-10 for a Top Six Finish are appealing Super League odds with Betfred.
Predicted finish: 5th
Super League Bet: 11/10 Top Six Finish; Tom Davies 12/1 each way as Top Try-scorer
Huddersfield Giants 12/1
The appointment of Ian Watson as head coach and some ambitious new signings, funded by one of the richest owners in the competition, means the Giants are many punters’ outsiders pick in the Super League betting.
The form of Australian half-back Aidan Sezer (8-1 favourite in the Steve Prescott Man of Steel betting) in his second season at the club will be crucial whilst big money spent in the off-season on the likes of Ricky Leutele, Jack Cogger, Joe Greenwood, Josh Jones and Luke Yates, means the incoming boss can look to mould a quality side who play optimum rugby.
Much of the hype is focussed on Watson, who steered unfancied Salford to a Grand Final in 2019 and the Challenge Cup Final last year, but whilst they did beat Leeds Rhinos in pre-season, it may still take time for him to fully put his stamp on the team.
Predicted finish: 7th
Super League Bet: Aidan Sezer 8-1 Steve Prescott Man of Steel
Hull FC 12/1
Brett Hodgson is an exciting new coach and the capture of ex-Origin star Josh Reynolds looks to be an inspired acquisition for the black and whites, where he is set to form a mouth-watering partnership with Marc Sneyd at half-back.
A reshuffle means it could also be a big season for versatile England star Jake Connor. Having lost Jamie Shaul to injury, the full-back role could be his regular berth this season and his form will be key if the club are finally to live up to expectations.
They have a formidable pack and Scot Taylor’s return to fitness, having missed a large chunk of last season with a back injury, should not be underestimated.
This could be a big year for the Airlie Birds who look a good thing at 4/6 in the Top Six Betting
Predicted finish: 3rd
Super League Bet: 4/6 for Top Six; 12/1 EW regular season winner
Hull Kingston Rovers 66-1
Tony Smith had his young side playing some good rugby at times last season but, ultimately, they lacked quality and resilience to finish bottom of the table and only avoided relegation because of Toronto’s demise.
The arrivals of New Zealand International Brad Takairangi from Parramatta, prop Albert Vete from Melbourne, and forward Korbin Sims – another player with NRL experience – makes them a stronger proposition. Meanwhile, the exciting capture of former Leeds winger Ryan Hall, who returns to Super League after two years at Sydney Roosters, is one to watch.
They are second favourites at 7-1 to finish bottom but should be too good this season to avoid that ignominy.
Predicted finish: 10th
Super League Bet: None
Leeds Rhinos 10/1
Leeds were outstanding in last season’s Challenge Cup but were too easy to beat in Super League and finished fifth.
They are, though, an elite team brimming with playmaking talent which includes the highly-rated Richie Myler at full-back and the equally impressive Rob Lui and Luke Gale in the halves.
Despite some pre-season injuries, coach Richard Agar has not been too active in the transfer market but the marquee signing of forward Zane Tetevano looks to be a shrewd move. The former Roosters and Penrith star, who played 122 games in the NRL, is looking to make it four Grand Finals in as many years.
There will also be much interest in Kyle Eastmond who returns rugby league after a second career in Union with Bath, Wasps and Leicester. He also played six times for England.
Meanwhile, forward King Vuniyayawa, who has played three times for the Fijian national team, joins having been released by New Zealand Warriors and he could add an X-factor.
Predicted finish: 6th
Super League Bet: None
Leigh Centurions 100/1
The Centurions are back in Super League due to Toronto’s exit, having battled to return to the top table since their relegation in 2017. They were chosen despite finishing fourth in the second-tier’s last full season in 2019.
The new boys are justifiably 11-10 favourites to finish bottom. However, John Duffy, at 40 the youngest coach in the competition, is technically strong and despite a tight budget has recruited a long list of good players with Super League experience.
These include Jamie Ellis, Ben Flower, Joe Mellor, Matty Russell, Lewis Tierney and Blake Wallace who will ensure they won’t go down without a fight.
Predicted finish: 12th
Super League Bet: 11/10 to finish bottom
Salford Red Devils 50/1
Many fear that coach Ian Watson’s departure could spell the end of the resurgence of Salford we have witnessed over recent seasons, but in Richard Marshall, they have made a very interesting appointment/
Marshall has been involved in plenty of success, being the 2019 and 2020 Grand Final winning assistant coach at St Helens, and he will relish the opportunity to operate in the top job.
He has inherited plenty of talent including Kevin Brown, Ken Sio, Kallum Watkins and Krisnan Inu, whilst the team has been further strengthened by some very good additions.
Their headline signing is versatile Kiwi forward Elijah Taylor from Wests Tigers but winger Joe Burgess, who misses the opening rounds through injury, is top class and many were surprised Wigan let him go. Meanwhile, ex-Wigan full-back Morgan Escare is a handful for any team and loose forward Danny Addy has impressed in pre-season, following his move from Leigh, and could make an instant impact.
In the post-Ian Watson era, Salford are something of an unknown quantity, but they may just prove a few doubters wrong.
Predicted finish: 8th
Super League Bet: None
St Helens 9/4
Saints are a machine and are looking for a third Super League title in a row. They have stability and experience in abundance and will undoubtedly be the team to beat again.
Coach Kristian Woolf doesn’t need to tinker too much with his side who will look to build on their breathtaking win over great rivals Wigan in November’s Grand Final.
The already glittering array of talent is augmented by the arrivals of Joel Thompson from Manly, who will take over the No.11 shirt from retiring Zeb Taia, Sione Mata’utia, Australia’s youngest ever international, and Tonga international Agnatius Paasi.
When Saints play at 100%. they are pretty much unbeatable. Their speed and execution stands them apart and they have proven to have what it takes to perform week in and week out. They are taken to justify their favourite’s tag in the regular season Super League betting.
Predicted finish: 1st
Super League Bet: 9/4 to finish top
Wakefield Trinity 66/1
Chris Chester is a strong coach who seems to be getting shrewder as time passes. He has not had the luxury of making too many additions to his squad but the signing of scrum-half Mason Lino from Newcastle Knights looks to be interesting. The Samoa international was previously at New Zealand Warriors and is very highly regarded.
Otherwise, Chester will need to rely on the tested and proven players, and in Tom Johnstone, they have one of the best finishers and fastest players in the world. He will be hoping to stay injury-free and put in a strong season to earn a World Cup berth in Shaun Wane’s England squad.
If Wakey are to have any joy they will need Johnston to wade in with plenty of tries and at 20-1 in the Top Try-scorer betting he looks to be a good each way pick.
Predicted finish: 9th
Super League Bet: Tom Johnston 20/1 each way as Top Try-scorer
Warrington Wolves 6/1
All the talk ahead of Wire’s kick-off is the signing of Australian superstar Greg Inglis, who has been persuaded to abandon his retirement after two years out of the game. During his 15 years at South Sydney Rabbitohs and Melbourne Storm. he won a Grand Final, State of Origin plus he is a World Cup and Golden Boot winner.
Inglis has asked for time to get himself back up to the pace of the game and when that happens, he looks bound to make a big impact and be a major asset to the Wolves as they look to not fall short again.
The Wolves have a strong team and have been not too far behind the best in recent seasons. They finished third last year, but they just seem to miss a magic ingredient that Inglis may provide.
If the 33-year-old does lift Warrington, he must surely be in the running for the Steve Prescott Man of Steel and odds of 16-1 do look tempting whilst 3/1 to make the Super League Dream Team at centre looks even better.
Coach Steve Price has further bolstered his squad with the signings of young English forwards Robbie Mulhern, a product of the Wakefield Trinity Wildcats Academy, and Kent-born Rob Butler from London Broncos.
Warrington have a lot going for them, except Price is in his final year with the club which could create some uncertainty and foster a transitional feel to the season.
Predicted finish: 4th
Super League Bet: Greg Inglis 3/1 for Super League Dream Team Centres
Wigan Warriors 5/2
Having finished top of the table last season, the Warriors were cruelly beaten by St Helens in the Grand Final because of an error after the hooter had sounded, and they need to put that disappointment behind them.
There is not as much rebuilding to do as in previous years and the return of one of the world’s best in John Bateman should be seamless. His re-signing is given more significance as he is seen as the heir apparent to retired club legend Sean O’Loughlin at loose forward. After a stellar stint with Canberra Raiders, Bateman will be a sporting pick in the Steve Prescott Man of Steel betting for which he is a tempting 12-1.
Another plus for Wigan is the acquisition of the exciting 23-year-old Jai Field, who was released by Parramatta but has wowed observers and teammates in training.
However, the Warriors may not be seen at their best in the opening rounds. They start the campaign with no fit recognised wingers as both Liam Marshall and Dom Manfredi are out injured for a few weeks.
With pacey centre Oliver Gildart, who could fill in on the wings, also missing for a while, coach Adrian Lam will need to call up youngsters to the squad.
Meanwhile, two of their biggest stars who shone last season, Bevan French and Jackson Hastings, have only just returned to the UK from Australia and will miss the start of the season as they look to build match fitness
When they are fully fit, Wigan have the most exciting team of individuals in the competition, and somehow Lam has to try and accommodate French, Hastings, Field, Thomas Leuluai, Sam Powell and Harry Smith. If he can get that incredible array of talent onto the field at the same time, it could be explosive.
Predicted finish: 2nd
Super League Bet: John Bateman 12/1 Steve Prescott Man of Steel
Verdict
There may not be much between derby rivals St Helens and Wigan Warriors again, but the latter may be slower to get out of their blocks by which time Saints, who should hit the ground running, could have bagged an extra couple of victories that may be hard to peg back.
Hull FC have a good balance to the team and look set for an improved season whilst Greg Inglis’ Warrington Wolves and Leeds Rhinos will push them hard.
