Lyon-hearted Top 14 predictions for Round 19

The powers that be in French club rugby have decided to shift the whole of the 19th round of the competition from the back end of March, where it clashed with the final scheduled round of the 2021 Six Nations, to this weekend.

The impact of COVID-19 on some of the squads adds an unknown element to certain matches from a punters’ point of view, but we hope there are a few good pointers in this betting preview.

FRIDAY JANUARY 22
La Rochelle (2nd) v Bayonne (12th), Stade Marcel Deflandre, 8.45pm (France time)

Hard to call this one, which has all the rusty hallmarks of an early season outing, despite the 10-place gap in league positions.

Covid-hit La Rochelle have not played since January 2, while Bayonne – who have had to deal with their own coronavirus outbreak that meant three matches in a row were called off – have played just once, a single-point defeat at home to Pau last weekend.

It would be good just to see both sides back on the field again. The unknown heading into this game is how much the virus affected the hosts. Most of the cases were among academy players, but a number of senior squad members were also affected. 

A total 10 players – including Jules Plisson, Geoffrey Doumayrou, Kévin Gourdon, Victor Vito, Tawera Kerr Barlow, Pierre Aguillon, Wiaan Liebenberg, and Arthur Retiere – are reportedly unavailable for the hosts, so this will be a real test of depth. 

France trio Uini Atonio, Pierre Bourgarit and Gregory Alldritt are expected to feature – and despite the large absentee list, the hosts should have enough in the tank to pick up the win that would, for a while at least, promote them to the top of the table.

VERDICT: Bay of plenty for punters backing the visitors at +18

SATURDAY JANUARY 23
Racing 92 (3rd) v Bordeaux-Begles (6th), La Defense Arena, 3.15pm (France time)

Virimi Vakatawa’s in-goal error bore the brunt of the headlines after Racing lost by six at home to Toulon last weekend – but that solitary early moment was not the only reason Laurent Travers’ side lost a game they should have won.

You can bet Travers and his staff have worked this week to ensure the casual mistakes that marked that performance have been ironed out – which means a much more polished, focused Racing are likely to come out against Bordeaux this Saturday afternoon.

This has all the hallmarks of a high-scoring affair, as Christophe Urios’s visitors are far from faint-hearted when it comes to running the ball. But, you’d have to expect the hosts to have the edge at the final whistle. And if they let rip? The gap could be quite big.

VERDICT: Wait to see what the total match points line is

Clermont (5th) v Castres (9th), Stade Marcel Michelin, 6.15pm

This should be an easy call. Clermont at home, right? But Clermont have been hit-and-miss this season, and are currently fifth in the table, some 12 points behind leaders Toulouse. Their draw at Bordeaux last week came after a win on the road at Pau, which came after four defeats in five in all competitions.

Okay, then, but Castres away is a defeat in the bag, isn’t it? Surprisingly, Castres have won four times and drawn once on the road – and are undefeated away from home in the Top 14 since October – while they have only two wins at home. They haven’t lost since the rearranged Top 14 match against Brive in December, and have beaten Lyon, Agen and Montpellier in a three-match streak.

Clermont picked up a bonus point win at Castres earlier this season, but form heading into this match is with the visitors. A home win looks the most likely outcome, but if Castres do get the bit between their teeth they’ll cause a few problems.

VERDICT: +14 to the away team is a Castres-iron bet

Agen (14th) v Toulouse (1st), Stade Armandie, 6.15pm

Bottom v top. No wins v 10 wins and a draw in 14 Top 14 outings – 18 tries for and 60 against v 50 for and 29 against. And an astonishing 45-point difference between the two sides. The most basic stats are telling.

Toulouse head coach Ugo Mola may decide to rest a few players ahead of a block of games without their French internationals, but this should not be seen as a sign of disrespect towards their Garonne-derby rivals. He won’t be looking so far ahead that he won’t be chasing at least four points. Nor will he underestimate former Toulouse coaching colleague, Regis Sonnes – now in charge at the hosts. 

But the truth is, just over halfway through the season, Agen really have little to play for beyond pride. It’s still mathematically possible for them to survive – but rugby is not just a maths problem. Agen will, probably, win at least once before season’s end, but this looks for all the world like a no-brainer. The only question is, how large the gap will be.

VERDICT: Team selection will be key for this one. Toulouse will need a near full strength side to overcome -30 on the handicap.

Montpellier (13th) v Lyon (7th), GGL Stadium, 6.15pm

Montpellier are in a world of trouble right now. Philippe Saint-Andre has three defeats and no wins to his name, after replacing Xavier Garbajosa as head coach three weeks ago. The club’s record this season is three wins from 15 and they are in the unwanted survival play-off place. 

At least Saint-Andre knows Lyon. They were the opponents for his first outing as interim head coach on January 6, in a match rearranged because of Covid. Early signs were promising, as Montpellier showed some steel in defeat to come away from Stade Gerland with a losing bonus point. But it was an illusion. They have since given up half-time leads to lose at Brive and at home to Castres. 

But Pierre Mignoni’s Lyon, too, are suffering a dip in form. That win over Montpellier is their only victory in 2021 and means they have slipped out of the play-off places. This is a battle between two sides in desperate need of confidence – and will likely bear all those hallmarks. 

It will be close. It will be tense. It will be strewn with errors. The smart money would probably lean towards Lyon, even though they’re away from home, but this really isn’t a smart-money game.

VERDICT: Lyon to grind out a win. Go low on the total match points market

SUNDAY, JANUARY 24
Pau (11th) v Brive (10th), Stade du Hameau, 2.45pm (France time)

Two sides with, if not fully-fledged relegation fears then niggling concerns about being dragged into a relegation battle meet as 11th entertains 10th in the Top 14.

All the speculation about Pau is about their new head coach’s identity – with France age-grade manager Sébastien Piqueronies and ex-Montpellier coach Xavier Garbajosa both being mentioned in dispatches. But this match is the more immediate concern.

Brive have the better of the recent form, with three wins in their last four, but there’s not much in it. Pau have won two from four – and have managed some smart, flowing attacking rugby under their interim coaching team. It’s also true to say they have occasionally been a bit sloppy without the ball. No doubt they’re working on getting that right. 

Truth is, this looks set to be an arm wrestle. Brive aren’t a try-heavy side, but they’re all kinds of gnarly in defence. Pau aren’t either, so expect this one to be mostly decided by the kickers.

VERDICT: In a match where points may be at a premium, Brive at +7 may be the bet

Toulon (4th) v Stade Francais (8th), Stade Mayol, 9.05pm

Toulon, fresh from last Sunday’s more-than-useful win at Racing 92, face further capital opposition, in the form of a Stade Francais side rejuvenated under returning coach Gonzalo Quesada. 

To put it another way, the fourth-best defence and seventh-best attack in the Top 14 welcomes the third-best attack and seventh-best defence in a match that looks, on paper, for all the world like there won’t be much in it at the death.

Stade stumbled last time out, losing 48-24 at Toulouse, but have had plenty of time since to rest, recuperate and prepare for this match thanks to what was a blank weekend for them following the cancellation of two European competition pool phase rounds.

Expect this match to be closer than Stade’s last outing – perhaps even not much more than a score – but the hosts should come away with the points.

VERDICT: Stade +8 but don’t bank on it for the last leg of your acca.