Recommended bets:
2pts: Australia win (7/19, SBK)
1pt: France +4 HT h’cap (10/11 William Hill/Unibet)
1pt: Both teams to score a try in each half (2/1, Paddy Power)
We fancied France to pull off a shock win in last week’s first Test, and rightly so as it turns out, with only a moment of madness, like only the French can do, ruining what should have been a first win against the Wallabies on Australian soil since 1990.
As it is, Noah Lolesio punished France’s failure to kick the ball dead when time was up by booting Australia to a last-minute 23-21 victory, and the confidence they will have gained from getting over the line in a close encounter, following back-to-back draws against Argentina, will have done wonders for the home team’s confidence.
Buoyed by that win, Dave Rennie’s troops will fancy their chances against a France side who are no doubt still smarting from that defeat.
The pain will work one of two ways – Fabien Galthie gets the reaction he craves, or another foray on Australian soil ends up in disappointment.
Given the fortuitous nature of Australia’s win, you wouldn’t have had them down as nine-point favourites but that handicap mark was proven about right in our mind when the teams were announced.
Whilst Australia have gone with an unchanged matchday 23, France have opted to tinker significantly with an already experimental line-up and look weaker for it.
No French team should be written off, whether they are first-choice, second-choice or third-choice, and having got out of jail once, there’s no danger Australia will be complacent again.
Les Bleus got off to a flying start in the first Test, leading 15-0 in 25 minutes, which continued a trend of theirs from the Six Nations. Across those five matches, France had a positive points difference in the first quarter of 31 points – 25 more than the next best team in that timeframe.
For that reason, the half-time handicap (+4 France) is probably more appealing than backing them at +9 for the entire match, as we expect the Wallabies to take a grip in the second 40.
Australia haven’t exactly set the world alight in attack, scoring just eight tries over their last six Tests, but you’d back them, even against a Shaun Edwards-coached defence, to score at least one try in each half as they did seven days ago. We feel that France are more than capable of achieving that too and, therefore, deliver on the odds of 2/1 offered by Paddy Paddy.
