Gallagher Premiership 2021/22 - Round 4 Archive

The Rugby Tipster keeps you up-to-date with the latest on each round of matches in the Gallagher Premiership. Our in-depth knowledge of form and team selection can guide your rugby betting selections and get you the best rugby odds.

HARLEQUINS

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Friday October 8th

19:45

PREDICTION – QUINS BY 12

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BRISTOL BEARS

It would be wrong to describe Bristol are a one-man team but the continued absence of Semi Radradra shows that they were perhaps too reliant on his magic on their march to the semi-finals last season. 

The same could be said of Charles Piutau. Stop the former All Black in his tracks and, at present, you have a every good chance of stopping Bristol. Piutau is top of the Premiership for carries, metres made, tackle breaks and offloads and if you nullify his threat, you do wonder what else Bristol have got. Harry Randall is a sniping menace at the base of the scrum or ruck but Niyi Adeolokun, on the right wing, is not in the same class as Luke Morahan or Siva Naulago … yet.

Last weekend’s derby win over Bath would have been a real shot in the arm for Pat Lam’s men after kicking off the season with two straight defeats, to Saracens and Wasps, but they’ll still be nowhere near as upbeat as a Quins side that’s began its title defence with wins against Newcastle and Worcester. On paper, that would seem like a kind start to the season but the Falcons and Warriors look stronger than in the part.

Continuity of selection was a key driver in Harlequins’ run to Twickenham last season and they have the benefit of another unchanged XV for Friday night’s clash. The speed of movement, on and off the ball, that made them so successful is still a major part of their DNA. Three of their nine tries to date have originated from tap penalties.

Quins also have the better basics in place too, in terms of scrum, discipline, goal-kicking and defence. They have yet to lose a scrum, they have been awarded twice as many penalties as they have conceded (28/14), their success rate in going for the posts is 89% to Bristol’s 70% and they’ve completed more tackles percentage-wise than their opponents. Bristol are currently missing 20% of their tackles, a stat that only looks like getting worse when up against on-fire opponents like Louis Lynagh.

As an added bonus, Quins welcome back Marcus Smith to the matchday 23 for the re-enactment of last season’s amazing semi-final. The British & Irish Lion starts on the bench as cover for Tommy Allen.

Recommended bet: Quins by 11-15 points (7/1, Betfred) A refreshed Quins will come back from their bye week and give Bristol a torrid time

Harlequins: 15 Tyrone Green, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Joe Marchant, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Tommy Allan, 9 Danny Care, 8 Alex Dombrandt (c), 7 Jack Kenningham, 6 Tom Lawday, 5 Dino Lamb, 4 Matt Symons, 3 Simon Kerrod, 2 Jack Walker, 1 Joe Marler
Replacements: 16 Sam Riley, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Will Collier, 19 Hugh Tizard, 20 James Chisholm, 21 Scott Steele, 22 Marcus Smith, 23 Luke Northmore

Bristol Bears: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Niyi Adeolokun, 13 Piers O’Conor, 12 Sam Bedlow, 11 Henry Purdy, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Harry Randall, 8 Steven Luatua (c), 7 Jake Heenan, 6 Fitz Harding, 5 Chris Vui, 4 Joe Joyce, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Jake Kerr, 1 Yann Thomas
Replacements: 16 Harry Thacker, 17 Jake Woolmore, 18 Max Lahiff, 19 Ed Holmes, 20 Dan Thomas, 21 Andy Uren, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Alapati Leiua 22. Ioan Lloyd, 23. Alapati Leiua.

 

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EXETER CHIEFS

Saturday October 9th

15:00

PREDICTION – CHIEFS BY 20

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WORCESTER WARRIORS

Worcester pulled off one of the biggest rugby betting shocks, certainly in the Premiership, in winning 6-5 down at Sandy Park in 2018.

No-one but the most one-eyed Warriors supporter would have seen that coming and while the odds will be shorter this time around (10/1, Skybet), it is hard to envisage anything other than a comfortable home win happening this weekend.

Chiefs played a bit like the old Chiefs in winning up at Sale Sharks last weekend and they are furthered strengthened with the Lions contingent of Luke Cowan-Dickie, Jonny Hill and Sam Simmonds all getting their first starts of the campaign.

Props Alec Hepburn and Harry Williams are also restored to the starting line-up having come off the bench at the AJ Bell Stadium last Saturday, and Tom Hendrickson retains his place after impressing as a sub for Ollie Devoto (ribs). Hendrickson’s physicality will be a good foil for Ollie Lawrence in the Warriors’ midfield.

Warriors are also able to unleash their Lions, wing Duhan van der Merwe and loose-head prop Rory Sutherland, but they won’t slip into the system as seamlessly as the Chiefs’ trio, plus captain Ted Hill is a big miss in the back-row because of a three-week suspension.

Even though we expect Chiefs to run away with it, it could be touch and go whether they are able to cover 18 points on the handicap. For us, backing the Chiefs on the half-time handicap (-10) makes better sense as the Warriors have tended to come on strong in the second half this season, scoring 72% of their points (63 out of 88) after the break.

Exeter Chiefs: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Facundo Cordero, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Tom Hendrickson, 11 Tom O’Flaherty, 10 Harvey Skinner, 9 Jack Maunder; 1 Alec Hepburn, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Harry Williams, 4 Will Witty, 5 Jonny Hill, 6 Dave Ewers, 7 Richard Capstick, 8 Sam Simmonds

Replacements: 16 Jack Innard, 17 Billy Keast, 18 Josh Iosefa-Scott, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Christ Tshiunza, 21 Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, 22 Joe Simmonds, 23 Ian Whitten

Worcester Warriors: 15 Jamie Shillcock, 14 Noah Heward, 13 Oli Morris, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Billy Searle, 9 Willi Heinz (CC), 1 Rory Sutherland, 2 Scott Baldwin (CC), 3 Christian Judge, 4 Andrew Kitchener, 5 Justin Clegg, 6 Kyle Hatherell, 7 Matt Kvesic, 8 Sione Vailanu.

Replacements: 16 Niall Annett, 17 Ethan Waller, 18 Jay Tyack, 19 Joe Batley, 20 Sam Lewis, 21 Will Chudley, 22 Will Butler, 23 Harri Doel.

 

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GLOUCESTER RUGBY

Saturday October 9th

15:00

PREDICTION – SHARKS BY 4

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SALE SHARKS

Betfair are offering 15/8 for a Sharks win which, considering their record at Kingsholm, looks over-priced.

Okay, Gloucester opened their account for the season with victory over Worcester last week and Sale have not got off to the most convincing of starts, with one narrow win, one draw and one defeat, but the Sharks have too much quality to be down on their luck for long.

Being classed as one of the frontrunners for the title does not tend to suit a side like Sale who love to play up to their self-made reputation as the naughty northern boys who react best when their backs are up against the wall.

Alex Sanderson rotates his squad again and you get the feeling he needs to settle on his best team soon, but the team has has put out – including a first Premiership start for Kieran Wilkinson in the injury-troubled position of fly-half – is still capable of doing what the last four Sharks teams have done at Kingsholm and go and get a result. 

The Sharks will be desperate to bounce back after their blips against London Irish and Exeter and are the valiue bet at 15/8, even though Gloucester’s backline looks a tasty one with the inclusion of Lions Chris Harris and Louis Rees-Zammit.

Gloucester: 15. Jason Woodward, 14. Louis Rees-Zammit, 13. Chris Harris, 12. Mark Atkinson, 11. Jonny May, 10. Adam Hastings, 9. Ben Meehan; 1. Harry Elrington, 2. Jack Singleton, 3. Kirill Gotovtsev, 4. Freddie Clarke, 5. Andrew Davidson, 6. Ruan Ackermann, 7. Lewis Ludlow (c), 8. Ben Morgan.

Replacements: 16. Matt Moulds, 17. Val Rapava-Ruskin, 18. Jamal Ford-Robinson, 19. Matias Alemanno, 20. Jack Clement, 21. Charlie Chapman, 22. Billy Twelvetrees, 23. Kyle Moyle.

Sale Sharks: 15. Simon Hammersley, 14. Denny Solomona, 13. Sam James, 12. Luke James, 11. Arron Reed, 10. Kieran Wilkinson, 9. Raffi Quirke; 1. Ross Harrison (C), 2. Curtis Langdon, 3. Coenie Oosthuizen, 4. Jean-Luc du Preez, 5. Jean-Pierre du Preez, 6. Cameron Nield, 7. Sam Dugdale, 8. Daniel du Preez.

Replacements: 16. Tommy Taylor, 17. Simon McIntyre, 18. Nick Schonert, 19. Cobus Wiese, 20. Jono Ross, 21. Gus Warr, 22. Curtis Langdon, 23. Tom Roebuck.

 

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LONDON IRISH

Saturday October 9th

15:00

PREDICTION – TIGERS BY 8

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LEICESTER TIGERS

It says a lot that Leicester have a 58% success rate in front of goal yet George Ford is still top of the points-scoring charts.

The Tigers are putting teams under a lot of pressure with their fast line speed and solid setpiece, and just by doing the basics well, that is resulting in opportunities for their fly-half to kick points and justify our pre-season faith in him to be the Golden Boot winner.

Opposite number Paddy Jackson has also been praised for the way he is performing in general play but his goal-kicking stats leave a lot to be desired too, with Irish only converting half of their chances in front of goal.

Both teams love to use their lineout as a springboard for creating tries – three-quarters of Irish’s 12 tries have come from this source, while Leicester are running at 60 per cent – but there is no better student of the lineout than Tigers boss Steve Borthwick and we think the Exiles will have their work cut out in that area on Saturday. 

With points possibly going begging, the lineout threat being nullified and a referee in Adam Leal that likes to keep it 15 v 15 the majority of times, the scores may remain on the low side in this one despite the immaculate playing surface and good weather forecast.


London Irish: 15 Tom Parton, 14 Ben Loader, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Terrence Hepetema, 11 Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Nick Phipps, 1 Will Goodrick-Clarke, 2 Agustin Creevy, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 4 Steve Mafi, 5 Adam Coleman, 6 Matt Rogerson (c), 7 Ben Donnell, 8 Albert Tuisue.

Replacements: 16 Matt Cornish, 17 Allan Dell, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 Rob Simmons, 20 George Nott, 21 Sean O’Brien, 22 Hugh O’Sullivan, 23 Benhard van Rensburg.

Leicester: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Matt Scott, 12 Juan Pablo Socino, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 1 Ellis Genge (c), 2 Nic Dolly, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Harry Wells, 5 Calum Green, 6 George Martin, 7 Tommy Reffell, 8 Hanro Liebenberg (vc) [39]

Replacements: 16 Julián Montoya [6], 17 Nephi Leatigaga [44], 18 Joe Heyes [73], 19 Eli Snyman [2] 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Richard Wigglesworth [15], 22 Freddie Burns [78], 23 Guy Porter [20]

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SARACENS

Saturday October 9th

15:00

PREDICTION: SARRIES BY 20

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NEWCASTLE FALCONS

Two sides that are an absolute pain in the arse to play against each other with their doggedness at the breakdown and in defence in general. But Saracens have the quality to come out on top in a match-up that favours going low on the total match-points.

In five matches featuring the sides to date, the highest aggregate score has been 45 points. Obviously, the wet weather played its part last weekend when Sarries were edged out 13-12 by Leicester but points always seem hard to come by for the opposition whenever Sarries are in town. Not one opposition player has scored against them this season. 

Another telling statistic is that Saracens have won their last 18 Premiership matches against Newcastle since the Falcons 13-9 triumph at Kingston Park in February 2009. The last time that Newcastle were successful on Saracens soil was at Vicarage Road in December 2007.

Recommended bet: Under 52.5 pts in the match (10/11)

Saracens: 15 Max Malins, 14 Alex Lewington, 13 Dom Morris, 12 Alex Lozowski, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Owen Farrell (c), 9 Aled Davies, 1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Jamie George, 3 Marco Riccioni, 4 Callum Hunter-Hill, 5 Tim Swinson, 6 Nick Isiekwe, 7 Ben Earl, 8 Billy Vunipola.

Replacements: 16 Tom Woolstencroft, 17 Eroni Mawi, 18 Alec Clarey, 19 Sean Reffell, 20 Andy Christie, 21 Ivan van Zyl, 22 Alex Goode, 23 Nick Tompkins.

Newcastle Falcons: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Adam Radwan, 13 Ben Stevenson, 12 Pete Lucock, 11 Nathan Earle, 10 Brett Connon, 9 Louis Schreuder; 1 Adam Brocklebank, 2 George McGuigan, 3 Trevor Davison, 4 Marco Fuser, 5 Sean Robinson, 6 Gary Graham, 7 Will Welch (captain), 8 Callum Chick.

Replacements: 16 Jamie Blamire, 17 Kyle Cooper, 18 Logovi’i Mulipola, 19 Will Montgomery, 20 Josh Basham, 21 Cameron Nordli-Kelemeti, 22 Will Haydon-Wood, 23 George Wacokecoke.

 

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WASPS

Sunday October 10th

15:00

PREDICTION – SAINTS BY 5

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NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

Points shouldn’t be hard to come by in this clash as both teams tend to play with quick ruck ball enabling their wide runners the time and space to make metres. A game of cut-and-thrust between two attack-minded teams looks in prospect and there could be a couple of key areas that decide the outcome.

For all the attacking flair, the result could hinge on goal-kicking and the lineout. After 17 attempts at goal, Saints have yet to miss while Wasps have only been getting two-thirds of their kicks.’

As for the lineout, Wasps have been near-flawless, losing just one of their 32 throws but there is no better team at pilfering opposition ball than Saints, who are boosted even further by the presence of lineout genius Courteney Lawes and Dave Ribbans.

Wasps are strengthened with Nizaam Carr and James Gaskell appearing in a Wasps side for the first time this season and you can expect them to fire a few shots of their own, especially against a side that has conceded 20 points or more in each of its three wins this season.

But Saints have their tails up and will be looking to hit the ground running again. No side starts matches better than them. Incredibly 41 per cent of their points have come in the first quarter so backing Saints on the half-time handicap makes a lot of sense.

Recommended bets: Over 52.5 pts (10/11) & Saints +1 on the h/t h’cap (5.6)

Wasps:

15 Marcus Watson, 14 Zach Kibirige, 13 Sam Spink, 12 Michael Le Bourgeois, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Dan Robson; 1 Ben Harris, 2 Tom Cruse, 3 Pieter Scholtz, 4 Vaea Fifita, 5 Elliott Stooke, 6 Brad Shields (c), 7 Thomas Young, 8 Tom Willis.

Replacements: 16 Gabriel Oghre, 17 Robin Hislop, 18 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 19 James Gaskell, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Jimmy Gopperth, 23 Ali Crossdale.

Northampton Saints: 15 George Furbank, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Ollie Sleightholme, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Alex Mitchell; 1 Nick Auterac, 2 Sam Matavesi, 3 Paul Hill, 4 David Ribbans, 5 Api Ratuniyarawa, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Lewis Ludlam (capt), 8 Juarno Augustus.

Replacements: 16 Mikey Haywood, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Ehren Painter, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Teimana Harrison, 21 Frank Lomani, 22 Rory Hutchinson, 23 Alex Moon

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